Em artigo publicado pelo Boletim Coppolla, foi realizado um novo estudo sobre o COVID-19 no Brasil, em especial no epicentro do vírus, que é na cidade de São Paulo. Leia abaixo:


Os estudo foi realizado pelo oncologista e imunopatologista dr. Bruno Filardi (PhD);  o economista e professor da Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Samy Dana (PhD); o professor e matemático probabilista Alexandre Simas (UFPB); o empresário do segmento médico-hospitalar, dr. Rodrigo Rodriguez (USP); e o médico e professor dr. José Galucci Neto (USP).

O modelo que embasa as políticas públicas no Brasil (e especialmente em São Paulo) deriva do notório estudo do Imperial College de Londres. O problema é que o estudo inglês tem falhas metodológicas graves, não considera variáveis importantes e não foi adaptado pra realidade brasileira (e Paulista) adequadamente. Talvez por isso, a Imperial College estime o número de vítimas fatais do novo coronavírus no Brasil na casa das centenas de milhares – um cenário improvável, que espalha pânico na sociedade e nas autoridades tomadoras de decisão.

Pra ficar no caso do Estado de São Paulo (epicentro da pandemia no Brasil), segundo a projeção do novo modelo, o pico da doença pode ocorrer a partir de 29 de abril nas condições atuais de isolamento, que tem menos de 50% de efetividade segundo dados oficiais colhidos a partir de monitoramento da geolocalização de celulares.

Nessa situação, com 11.027 leitos de UTI pra COVID-19 – o que representa 70% da capacidade atual – o “cenário otimista” é de 5.900 óbitos tendo como causa mortis o novo coronavírus no Estado; o “cenário mediano” é de 8.557 mortes. Em ambos os casos, a pandemia estaria controlada a partir do final de maio. 

São só projeções, mas o estudo é embasado, multidisciplinar, e vai na contramão de previsões mais catastróficas que falavam em centenas de milhares de vítimas em São Paulo e no Brasil. Ainda seria uma tragédia, mas em menor escala – o que viabilizaria a retomada da vida social e econômica mais rapidamente, prevenindo o custo em vidas de uma recessão acentuada.


Roberto Cabrini solta o verbo

O jornalista Roberto Cabrini soltou o verbo e disse ontem no programa Conexão Repórter, do SBT, que sobram vagas nos nossos hospitais e que “o Brasil apresenta o segundo maior caso de sucesso no controle do coronavírus, atrás apenas da Coreia do Sul”.

Ainda aproveitou para criticar a corrupção de contratos ilícitos de hospitais e também perguntou quando que as pessoas envolvidas na aglomeração do carnaval pedirão desculpas. Veja abaixo:

Você apoia a opinião do Roberto Cabrini? Comente abaixo!

Participe da discussão

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